England are through. Ireland and Scotland are out. And in between sit three teams — West Indies, New Zealand and Sri Lanka — fighting over the one semi-final ticket still left in Group B of the Women's T20 World Cup 2026.
Hosts England became the first side to seal their place in the last four, beating West Indies by 38 runs at Lord's in the 22nd match of the tournament. That result locked England in at the top of the group and turned the rest of Group B into a nervy three-way scramble.
Here's the simplest way to understand it: everything runs through West Indies. Win their final game and they're in — and that same result sends both New Zealand and Sri Lanka home. Only a West Indies slip-up keeps the other two alive.
Let's break down what each team needs.
West Indies T20 World Cup Semi Final Scenario
Remaining fixture: vs Ireland
West Indies are firmly in the driver's seat. Beat Ireland in their last league game and the semi-final spot is theirs — no calculators, no net run rate (NRR), no help required.
Even a defeat doesn't necessarily end their run. They can still go through without relying on NRR if two things happen elsewhere:
England beat New Zealand
Scotland beat Sri Lanka
It gets tighter if Sri Lanka win big. Say Sri Lanka beat Scotland by around 50 runs and it comes down to a six-point tie. In that case, a beaten West Indies would need to keep their losing margin small to protect their NRR:
If chasing, lose by fewer than 25 runs
If batting first, go down with no more than 19 balls to spare
In short: West Indies are one win away, and even one defeat may not be fatal.
New Zealand T20 World Cup Semi Final Scenario
Remaining fixture: vs England
The 2024 champions are hanging on by a thread. New Zealand play their final group game against England after the West Indies vs Ireland clash (Match 27) — which means their fate may already be sealed before they take the field. If West Indies beat Ireland, New Zealand are out, full stop.
To keep their title defence alive, New Zealand need a very specific sequence:
Ireland must beat West Indies
Sri Lanka must lose to Scotland — or, if Sri Lanka win, finish behind New Zealand on NRR
New Zealand must beat England and finish above West Indies on NRR
There is one cleaner route. If West Indies lose to Ireland by just one run, then New Zealand simply need to beat England by any margin to go through alongside the hosts. New Zealand currently carry a positive NRR of +0.122, which gives them a slight cushion in any tie.
Sri Lanka T20 World Cup Semi Final Scenario
Remaining fixture: vs Scotland
Sri Lanka have been one of the group's surprise packages, but they have the steepest climb. Their NRR of -0.973 is the worst among the three contenders, so they can't just win — they have to win convincingly.
A guaranteed semi-final place needs all of the following:
Sri Lanka beat Scotland by a big margin
England beat New Zealand
West Indies lose to Ireland and drop below Sri Lanka on NRR
To get a feel for how big "big" needs to be: if Sri Lanka beat Scotland by 50 runs, they'd then need West Indies to lose to Ireland by at least 25 runs, or for Ireland to chase down a 151-run target in 16.4 overs or fewer. Fine margins, all of it riding on other people's results.
The bottom line
It really is this simple at the top of the equation: if West Indies beat Ireland, the second Group B semi-final spot is theirs, and both New Zealand and Sri Lanka are eliminated regardless of their own results.
So the whole group hangs on one game. West Indies win, and the maths is done. West Indies stumble, and suddenly New Zealand and Sri Lanka have a lifeline — but both will need results to fall their way and a friendly net run rate to finish the job.
One spot. Three teams. One result that decides almost everything.
Group B remaining fixtures
West Indies vs Ireland (Match 27)
Sri Lanka vs Scotland
New Zealand vs England
FAQs
Who has qualified from Group B?
England, after beating West Indies by 38 runs at Lord's. The second spot is still open.
What do West Indies need to qualify?
A win over Ireland books their place outright. A West Indies win also eliminates both New Zealand and Sri Lanka.
Can New Zealand still make the semi-finals?
Only if Ireland beat West Indies, New Zealand beat England, and results plus NRR go their way. If West Indies win, New Zealand are out.
What about Sri Lanka?
Sri Lanka must beat Scotland heavily, hope England beat New Zealand, and need West Indies to lose to Ireland — while overturning the worst NRR of the three.
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